Job Market Paper
Making the Best of the Second-Best: Welfare Consequences of Time-Varying Electricity Prices
In electricity markets, the price paid by retail customers during periods of peak demand is far below the cost of supply. This leads to overconsumption during peak periods, requiring the construction of excess generation capacity compared to first-best prices that adjust at short time intervals to reflect changing marginal cost. In this paper, I investigate a second-best policy designed to address this distortion, and compare its effectiveness to the first-best. The policy allows the electricity provider to raise retail price by a set amount (usually 3 to 5 times) during the afternoon hours of a limited number of summer days (usually 9 to 15). Using a quasi-experimental research design and high-frequency electricity consumption data, I test the extent to which small commercial and industrial establishments respond to this temporary increase in retail electricity prices. I find that establishments reduce their peak usage by 13.4% during peak hours. Using a model of capacity investment decisions, these reductions yield $154 million in welfare benefits, driven largely by reduced expenditures on power plant construction. I find the current policy provides 43% of the first-best benefits but that, with improvements in targeting just the days with the highest demand, a modified peak pricing program could achieve 80% welfare gains relative to the first-best pricing policy.
Works in Progress
Energy efficiency savings in low-income households: Evidence from the California Energy Savings Assistance Program
Energy efficiency policies are increasingly used to both save on energy bills and as a carbon mitigation strategy. Mandatory energy efficiency standards are an important part of this strategy, and have significantly increased appliance efficiency over the last 40 years. This paper examines the California Energy Savings Assistance program, which provides no-cost upgrades to low-income households across the state. Much of this program involves replacing older lighting and appliances with new, energy-efficient models. I use quasi-experimental variation in program uptake to measure energy savings for retrofitted San Diego Gas & Electric customers between 2007 and 2012, finding the program provides little savings. I examine the impact of minimum efficiency standards for the households that received a replacement refrigerator, finding large energy savings when moving from an old standards regime to a new one. Using variation in refrigerator replacement rules, I find evidence of a decreasing benefit from each successive wave of standards, highlighting the potentially limited effectiveness of future minimum appliance standards.